California’s fiscal risks despite largest surplus in more than decade 

“The risk of a recession given where the economy inside U.S. can be today can be not so great,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “We’re forecasting a not bad 2018, a little weaker 2019, as well as weaker again in 2020.”

yet Nickelsburg added in which “there’s risk of a near-term slowdown, if not a recession, because of the things in which are happening in international trade.”

“California can be a big logistics industry because in which has important Asia-facing ports, as well as in which industry has been one of our growth industries,” he said. “In a trade war-induced recession, in which industry would certainly be hit disproportionately hard.”

During 2017, California exported more than $170 billion in goods as well as services, the top export markets being Mexico, Canada, China, Japan as well as Hong Kong. Foreign direct investment in California also can be significant, bringing in nearly $65 billion in 2016, according to government data.

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