Conor Lamb leads Rick Saccone in PA special election: Monmouth poll

Conor Lamb, Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, left, greets an attendee after speaking during a campaign rally with members of the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) at the Greene County Fairgrounds in Waynesburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Sunday, March 11, 2018.

Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Conor Lamb, Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, left, greets an attendee after speaking during a campaign rally with members of the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) at the Greene County Fairgrounds in Waynesburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Sunday, March 11, 2018.

“This kind of district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, yet a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

On Tuesday, Republicans look to avoid a potentially embarrassing loss in a district Trump won by 20 percentage points in 2016. While the district will no longer exist as This kind of is actually drawn currently when Pennsylvania’s brand new congressional map takes effect for November’s midterm elections, the result of the race could affect fundraising, recruitment as well as party morale as the major parties battle for control of Congress This kind of year.

The race has drawn national media attention, campaign stops by President Donald Trump as well as former Vice President Joe Biden as well as massive spending by Republican outside groups as well as Democratic donors. The election is actually considered a dead heat. Two separate polls of the race released This kind of month showed each Saccone as well as Lamb that has a three-point edge, within both polls’ margins of error.

Here are some of the various other findings within the Monmouth poll of the 18th District released Monday:

  • Among self-identified Democrats, 95 percent support Lamb as well as 5 percent back Saccone. Among those who say they are Republicans, 88 percent back Saccone as well as 9 percent support Lamb.
  • Lamb carries a 51 percent to 45 percent edge among independents, the survey says.
  • Trump’s move to put tariffs on steel as well as aluminum imports appears not to have done much to change likely voters’ minds. Only 3 percent said the actions moved them toward backing Saccone, while 1 percent responded in which the tariffs made them more likely to support Lamb. Ninety-six percent said the actions did not change their opinion on the race. Both candidates gave at least qualified support for the tariffs.
  • Likely voters were divided on Trump, with an even 49 percent saying they approved as well as disapproved of the president.

The telephone poll taken by March 8 to March 11 carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.

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