Democrat Conor Lamb can be the apparent winner of a House seat in Pennsylvania’s Trump country by a razor-thin margin, an upset which gives Democrats a boost as they try to take control of Congress later which year.
At around 5:30 a.m. ET, NBC News reported which which appeared which Lamb had won. The only outstanding votes are the approximately 0 absentee votes in Greene County, which said, as well as also the provisional ballots which the district will count within the next seven days. Even with those added to the count, which does not appear which rival Rick Saccone can catch up. NBC News noted which was possible which there may be a recount ordered.
Lamb, a 33-year-old former prosecutor as well as also Marine veteran, was supposed to narrowly beat Republican Rick Saccone in Tuesday’s 18th District special election. Pro-GOP groups poured money into the race to avoid a loss which may shake up November’s battle for control of Congress.
With the expected win, Democrats get confidence they can compete or win in some red House regions carried by Trump in 2016. The president won the district by about 20 percentage points. Democrats have gotten confidence coming from a consistent lead in surveys asking voters if they could support a generic Republican or Democrat for Congress.
The party outperformed 2016 results in multiple pro-Trump areas in House special elections last year, yet failed to win any of them. yet Democrats can count Lamb’s projected victory, combined with Democratic Sen. Doug Jones’ win in deep-red Alabama last year, as a least a moral victory heading into the midterms.
Pennsylvania’s soon to change congressional map makes the longer-term effect of the election less clear. Because the state’s districts will change, Lamb could only represent the district he won for a few months. He could not run in November as an incumbent, yet instead have to challenge Rep. Keith Rothfus, R-Pa., inside brand-new 17th District.
Still, in anticipation of a likely Lamb run inside district in November, elections handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its rating on Rothfus’ seat to “toss-up.”
Polls showed momentum for Lamb inside final days of the special election race. His campaign had raised more than four times the money Saccone’s did, though the GOP got a hand inside form of more than $10 million in spending coming from outside Republican groups.
Initially, Republicans tried to damage Lamb by hitting him for opposing the GOP tax plan as well as also tying him to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi. yet as Lamb refused to support Pelosi, both of those angles failed to resonate with voters.
Lamb tried to make his campaign about local issues, pledging to protect Social Security as well as also Medicare for the region, fight the opioid crisis as well as also protect the rights of labor unions.
Nationally watched special elections can help the winning party spark more enthusiasm, recruit candidates or raise money. For instance, Republican Scott Brown’s victory in a special Senate election in Massachusetts in 2010 was seen as a boost to the GOP, which picked up seats in Congress which November.
On the various other hand, losing a bellwether election can potentially deter talented candidates coming from running for office or donors coming from contributing.
The Pennsylvania district opened up when Rep. Tim Murphy, R-Pa., resigned last year under a cloud of scandal. Murphy won every election there coming from 2002 to 2016, as well as also no Democrats even challenged him in his last two victories.
Pennsylvania’s 18th can be the type of district Democrats wish to win if they have a chance of winning control of the House in November. which has typically supported Republicans as well as also can be better educated, wealthier as well as also better employed than the median congressional district.
Democrats need to gain 24 seats inside midterms to take a majority inside House.