“2018 is actually shaping up as a referendum on President Donald Trump,” Democratic pollster Peter Hart of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, told NBC News.
Democrats have a seven-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot because of This particular fall’s midterm elections, the poll said, while Democrats have much more intense enthusiasm heading into the pivotal contests.
The poll showed voters favor Democrats by a 47-40 edge on the generic ballot, which is actually down by a 50-40 lead Democrats had in March. Democrats need to flip 23 seats This particular fall to secure a majority.
However, 66 percent of Democratic voters have a high level of interest in voting This particular fall, while 49 percent of Republicans do. A high level of interest is actually marked by a score of 9 or 10 on 10-point scale.
The percentages are reminiscent of the last time a president was facing intense opposition during his first term. Data by NBC/WSJ polling in 2010, when Republicans seized the majority within the House during President Barack Obama’s first term, showed which 66 percent of GOP voters had a high level of interest, while 49 percent of Democrats said as much.
nevertheless the item’s not a “knockout” for Democrats, yet, according to the pollsters. Voters favored Democrats by double-digits in 2006 in addition to 2008, when the party enjoyed wave victories in addition to seized control in Congress.
The poll was conducted April 8-11 of 900 adults – including nearly half by cell phone. the item has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points. The margin of error for the 720 registered voters within the poll is actually plus-minus 3.7 percentage points.