- Forecasters believe about 10 Senate seats — in Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas in addition to West Virginia — are the most likely to flip This particular year. Democrats hold six of those, while Republicans control four. nevertheless polls have moved away via Democrats in two of the contests: Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp’s defense of her seat in pro-Trump North Dakota, in addition to Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s bid to upset GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in red Texas.
- The GOP has about an 80 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, only a slight dip via a week ago, according to FiveThirtyEight. Republicans’ chances of holding the chamber roughly mirror their chances of losing the House, according to the site. The GOP currently holds a 51-49 majority within the Senate.
- Cook considers eight of those 10 key races toss-ups. On Friday, This particular put Heitkamp’s seat within the lean Republican column. This particular also lists Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s re-election bid in West Virginia as one which leans Democratic. If those races hold, Democrats might have to carry out the daunting task of flipping three of the four GOP-held seats in Arizona, Nevada, Texas in addition to Tennessee, while not losing any more of its own toss-up contests, to flip the two net states needed to take a majority.
- Sabato also favors the GOP to flip North Dakota in addition to hold Tennessee in addition to Texas. In addition, This particular gives Manchin the edge in his re-election campaign. Again, the forecaster shows a difficult path to Democrats winning a Senate majority.
Cook’s downgrade of Heitkamp’s re-election chances was only the latest hit for the Democratic incumbent. Sabato had already moved the race to leans Republican as polls increasingly show an advantage for GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer in a state Trump won by more than 30 points.
Polls had recently moved away via Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen, who hopes to beat GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn in addition to flip a red Senate seat in Tennessee. Then on Thursday, a survey showed Bredesen is actually still within the hunt.
A Vanderbilt University poll found him leading Blackburn by 1 percentage point. This particular is actually unclear right now whether the survey is actually an outlier or a sign the state is actually still in play.
Meanwhile, a race where Republicans appeared to have a stunning chance for an upset has reset in favor of Democrats. Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez’s polling lead in blue fresh Jersey had evaporated in recent months, as Republican former pharmaceutical CEO Bob Hugin spent heavily to hammer the senator over corruption charges which ended in a mistrial.
Monmouth University in addition to Quinnipiac University polls This particular week found leads of 9 in addition to 7 percentage points, respectively, for Menendez. In a sign of the race’s competitiveness, a pro-Senate Democratic super PAC on Tuesday said This particular might drop $3 million into fresh Jersey on an ad tying Hugin to Trump.