Experts weigh in on Trump-Kim nuclear pledge

President Donald Trump in addition to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a deal on Tuesday committing the two leaders to establishing fresh ties “in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace in addition to prosperity.”

The agreement, which the two leaders signed at the historic nuclear summit in Singapore, has been criticized for being short on detail. Among the four points the two leaders agreed to was the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” which experts have said carries a different meaning to North Koreans than the idea does to Americans.

however experts say the next steps from the negotiating process will be key to the deal’s implementation.

More coverage on the Trump-Kim nuclear summit:
Read the full text of the Trump-Kim agreement here

Trump says North Korea will keep its promises, in addition to the US will stop war games

US stock futures flat after Trump-Kim summit ends

“the idea is usually the steps of which follow — or lack thereof — of which will determine if This kind of meeting was a success or failure,” Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told CNBC.

YJ Fischer, who worked on nuclear weapons policy at the State Department under former President Barack Obama, said, “The most important thing is usually what comes next.”

Below, 14 experts weigh in.

Catherine Dill, senior research associate, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
“The most important thing to consider is usually of which working out the details is usually the hardest part. The 4-point agreement is usually quite vague, likely intentionally, in addition to right now the crucial part of which comes next is usually developing an implementation plan with concrete steps. Supposedly Pompeo in addition to Bolton will continue to meet with North Korean officials in coming weeks to work out the details. After Trump’s remarks from the press conference about suspending U.S.-ROK exercises, the U.S. will need to carefully manage the alliance relationship with Seoul as well.”

R. Scott Kemp, director of the MIT Laboratory for Nuclear Security in addition to Policy
“This kind of is usually a perfect outcome. While some may complain of which the agreement is usually devoid of actionable substance — This kind of is usually fine. Neither Trump nor Kim were in a position to discuss details. A realistic agreement will probably take years to hash out, as there is usually much to learn about North Korea’s program first. The Trump-Kim statement of principles is usually exactly what is usually needed to get commenced.”

Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association
“The document Trump in addition to Kim signed is usually a mediocre reiteration of North Korea’s past commitments to denuclearize. the idea is usually far too soon to characterize This kind of vague, aspirational pledge as a success or a failure. The critical question is usually what comes next? the idea is usually imperative of which This kind of summit is usually not a one-off meeting in addition to of which the idea jump starts a process of which trades concrete actions to reduce in addition to roll back North Korea’s nuclear program in return for security assurances. from the follow-on negotiations, the Trump administration should focus on closing the gap between the United States in addition to North Korea on the definition of denuclearization in addition to laying out specific, verifiable steps of which Pyongyang will take to reduce the threat posed by its nuclear weapons. the idea is usually the steps of which follow — or lack thereof — of which will determine if This kind of meeting was a success or failure.”

Steve Andreasen, the director for defense policy in addition to arms control on the National Security Council staff via 1993 to 2001
“The Trump-Kim summit, along with renewed North-South diplomacy, has at least given pause to war. We can always wish for more in addition to more faster, however the reality of where we are today with North Korea is usually simply This kind of: A fresh process of dialogue in addition to negotiation will take time. the idea will be fluid in addition to unpredictable. We will learn more as negotiations unfold of which will inform our judgments about what can in addition to cannot be achieved. More likely than not, there will be agreements in stages — in addition to in each case, more than one way to achieve our vital interests, including diluting North Korea’s threat to the U.S., South Korea in addition to Japan in addition to avoiding a devastating war on the Korean Peninsula.”

James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program in addition to a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“I support diplomacy to reduce the risk of a war, in addition to I might much rather of which Trump in addition to Kim exchange civil words rather than nuclear threats. of which said, This kind of summit was a farce. The language on denuclearization was weaker than in previous agreements involving North Korea, in addition to Trump appears to have made significant concessions on US-ROK joint exercises without getting anything concrete in return.”

Steven Pifer, nonresident senior fellow from the Arms Control in addition to Non-Proliferation Initiative at the Brookings Institution
“This kind of was a not bad summit for Mr. Kim. He got a sit-down with the American president in addition to, apparently, a suspension of military exercises. Whether This kind of was a not bad summit for Mr. Trump in addition to for U.S. security interests depends on future steps. Mr. Kim committed ‘to work toward’ complete denuclearization if the Korean Peninsula. What of which means in reality remains to be seen.”

Togzhan Kassenova, Nuclear Policy Program fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“When you strip all the theatrics, there is usually not much substance to celebrate. Only if the follow-on engagement results in something tangible – North Korea’s firm commitment to denuclearization, ways to verify the idea, in addition to a strict timeline with the milestones, might we be able to say the summit was worth the idea. As of This kind of very moment, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un carries a reason to feel pleased with the summit. President Trump doesn’t.”

Sergey Radchenko, professor of international relations at Cardiff University
“For the moment I think there’s too much excitement here for no not bad reasons. Of course the idea’s great of which the two leaders have met … however from the long term I might say of which trust in North Korea to fulfill its obligations or to stick to the letter of agreement is usually not a very reliable prospect.”

YJ Fischer, former assistant coordinator for Iran nuclear implementation at the State Department
“I think the most important thing for readers to be considering going forward is usually of which This kind of was the first step in what is usually going to be a long process.The vagueness of the statement signed by President Trump in addition to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un indicates just how much work there is usually still is usually to be done. The two sides still need to agree on principles of disarmament, a timetable for implementation, in addition to stringent verification measures — or put another way, all the hard work remains to be done.

“The fact of which so little was achieved is usually OK. Diplomatic processes such as these take time. President Reagan in addition to Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev took three years in addition to three high-level summits to reach an arms control agreement. President Nixon’s meeting with Chinese leader Mao Zedong was important however the idea took six more years until relations were normalized with China.

“The most important thing is usually what comes next. the idea might be a mistake to rush to schedule a White House level summit between Trump in addition to Kim anytime soon. Instead Secretary of State Mike Pompeo should continue the meetings at his level to reach agreement around the key issues. The Pompeo level meetings don’t need to solve everything however the next time Trump in addition to Kim meet there should be a greater foundation for the framework of an arms control agreement.

“The Trump administration should also use This kind of time to work closely with the players from the region, including Japan in addition to especially China in addition to South Korea. Trump touted the success of his ‘maximum pressure.’ Well the era of maximum pressure is usually over because China in addition to South Korea want reduced tensions in addition to greater economic collaboration with North Korea. If Trump modifications his tune on North Korea, he is usually unlikely to have China in addition to South Korea with him. of which’s why the idea’s essential of which Trump ensures the three countries stay closely aligned.”

Laicie Heeley, editor-in-chief of foreign policy magazine Inkstick, in addition to host of the podcast Things of which Go Boom
“The summit was an exercise in pageantry of which one can only wish will lead to meaningful progress down the road. At This kind of point, unfortunately, the Kim regime has not agreed to additional concessions, leaving the details of its previously stated commitment to ‘denuclearization’ to be worked out down the road. in addition to while both leaders will tout the success of the summit at home, Kim walks away at a clear advantage, having met as a nuclear-armed equal with the president of the United States in addition to been guaranteed a ‘freeze for freeze’ agreement the U.S. had previously eschewed. of which said, Trump didn’t give up the farm, as many feared he might. While his characterization of joint military exercises as ‘provocative’ was unnecessary in addition to plays, Yet again, into Kim’s narrative, the step to freeze such exercises is usually easily reversed. For right now, the two countries remain engaged in amicable diplomacy, which is usually far preferable to talk of ‘fire in addition to fury’ in addition to ‘dotards’ on Twitter.

“right now, the real work begins. Trump in addition to Kim have agreed only in principle to real progress. First in addition to foremost, the two leaders must agree to a clear, shared, in addition to detailed definition of denuclearization. Diplomacy is usually a long, hard path, however worth the effort. I wish to see the Trump administration continue to engage in a constructive way.”

Frank N. von Hippel, senior research physicist in addition to professor of public in addition to international affairs emeritus at Princeton University’s Program on Science in addition to Global Security
“There is usually not much for a nonproliferation expert to say yet because there are no specifics, however I am glad we are negotiating rather than generating nuclear threats.

“I do think of which a deal is usually possible however also of which the idea will be a long time before we see the DPRK fully eliminate its nuclear in addition to missile capabilities.

“of which is usually not a technical judgement – technically the idea could be done relatively rapidly with full DPRK cooperation – however politically, DPRK’s nuclear capability is usually its main asset in addition to the idea is usually hard to see the idea giving of which away before there are a lot of additional modifications.

“In of which regard, I think of which suspending the annual US-ROK wargames is usually a not bad move on Trump’s part. Those games were very aggressive in addition to included nuclear threats. We can maintain readiness in less scary ways.”

Sharon Squassoni, former director of policy coordination from the State Department’s Nonproliferation Bureau
“The statement gets the relationship off the ground. Secretary Pompeo in addition to his North Korean counterparts will take up four baskets of issues from the future: diplomatic relations, security in addition to peace on the Peninsula, denuclearization in addition to efforts to recover POW/MIA remains. Trump in addition to Kim made personal commitments to security assurances in addition to denuclearization however the statement didn’t say how, why or when.

“There was no reference to a peace treaty, which will be a tricky effort, however the idea will likely be part of the follow-on negotiations. in addition to, there was no reference to complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization. Thankfully, This kind of suggests a more practical approach to reducing the risks via Kim’s nuclear weapons. However, the linkage of denuclearization to the Kim-Moon summit document could mean of which the United States might be kept at arms-length in of which process. Of course, South Korea has to play a key role in building peace in addition to security on the Korean peninsula, however the nuclear weapons of which Kim worries about are American.”

Eunjung Lim, assistant professor at the College of International Relations at Ritsumeikan University
“The statement was reaffirming the Panmunjon Declaration [between North in addition to South Korea], in addition to explicitly clarifies the DPRK as the subject who should commit to work towards ‘complete’ denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Since the 1992 Joint Declaration of Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, South Korea has removed every nuclear weapon, which means of which the remaining task is usually for North Korea. of which is usually why, I think, This kind of specific sentence is usually tremendously important.”

Richard Nephew, adjunct professor in addition to senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy
“Setting aside the implications of Trump’s apparent decision to cancel future U.S.-ROK military exercises due to their ‘provocative’ nature in addition to expense, the summit largely conformed to my expectations.

“One fear I had in advance of the summit was of which Trump in addition to Kim might commit to continue negotiating directly at their level, which might have created the real risk of inadvisable U.S. concessions with respect to the technical aspects of the DPRK nuclear program. Consequently, the most important element of the statement of which Trump in addition to Kim signed was the delegation to Pompeo in addition to ‘a relevant high-level DPRK official’ to continue the negotiations, ensuring of which there will be a reversion to more technical in addition to detailed talks.

“Any realistic resolution to the DPRK nuclear in addition to missile threat will require complex negotiations regarding any restrictions in addition to dismantlement activity to be undertaken, verification measures, in addition to sanctions relief.

“This kind of will take time in addition to the process needs political space in both countries. The tasks right now, especially in light of the exercises decision in addition to de facto moratorium on fresh sanctions, are all reassurance in addition to coordination on the content of the actual agreement to be negotiated. This kind of is usually the most important next step, since the exercise decision in addition to its casual, offhand announcement are going to terrify our allies from the region in addition to beyond.”

— CNBC’s Weizhen Tan in addition to Yen Nee Lee contributed to This kind of report.

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