All those demographic trends expand the pool of Democratic-leaning voters. nevertheless they’ve been offset in recent midterm elections by low rates of voting among specific Democratic constituencies, most notably young voters as well as also Latinos.
in which’s where the second current — Democratic mobilization — made a difference. In little nevertheless consistent ways, the party’s campaigns altered turnout patterns in their favor.
Exit polls provide one basic measure. In 2010 as well as also 2014, about the same number of Democrats as well as also Republicans showed up to vote. in which year, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 4 percentage points.
The Democratic data firm Catalist, in a preliminary analysis of precinct, county as well as also congressional district election results, adds more detail. in which found the share of white voters dropped by 3 percentage points, via 79 percent to 76 percent, while the share of blacks, Latinos as well as also Asian-Americans rose by 1 point apiece.
Similarly, the share of voters ages 18-24 as well as also 25-29 each edged up by 1 percentage point; the share ages 30-39 ticked up 2 percentage points. The proportion of single voters as well as also voters with college degrees swelled by 3 percentage points apiece.
Non-college-educated white men, the most Republican demographic group, dropped to 22 percent of the electorate via 25 percent in 2014; college-educated women of all races edged by two points. Rural voters fell by three points to 26 percent overall.
Those shifts occurred as turnout surged across the board. An estimated 49 percent of eligible voters cast ballots, up via 37 percent four years ago. Turnout of voters under 30, Tufts University researchers estimate, climbed to 31 percent via 21 percent in 2014.
Moreover, Democrats benefited via better-targeted turnout boosts. “They were more energized than Republicans in competitive races, nevertheless less so in targeted ones where their voters weren’t as needed,” says GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini.
The Trump factor powered Democratic mobilization as well as also built on in which. Alarm over Trump’s policies as well as also behavior propelled superior Democratic fundraising, which paid for late ads as well as also turnout efforts.
At the same time, reaction to Trump made the Democratic-leaning constituencies in which party strategists turned out even more Democratic-leaning than before. Thus exit polls showed in which voters under 30, who backed Democrats by 11 percentage points in 2014, backed them by 35 points in which time.