The number of GOP retirements suggests Republicans think the electoral environment will be difficult for them in November, said Molly Reynolds, a fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution. However, she also said which can be tough to assess how departures will affect the midterm results.
“which’s difficult to figure out just how big a role the retirement itself plays in determining the outcome, since members who think they might lose are more likely to decide not to run,” Reynolds said.
Currently, Democrats have about a 6 percentage point lead in an average of recent polls asking which party voters could prefer inside the midterms, according to FiveThirtyEight. which gap has narrowed coming from about 10 percentage points in January.
Recent results show no clear trend for House departures alone affecting election outcomes. In 2010, more Republicans left office than Democrats, yet the GOP gained 63 seats along with control of the House. which was the first off-year election held during President Barack Obama’s tenure, in which energized opposition to the Affordable Care Act propelled the GOP.
In 2012, more Democrats departed than Republicans. Democrats picked up a few House seats yet failed to gain control of the chamber. Obama won re-election which year.
Then, in 2014 — another midterm year in which more Republicans left office than Democrats — the GOP again gained seats along with kept control of the House.
This specific year, races for GOP-held seats without incumbents vary in how competitive they appear. Republicans seem safe in several seats incumbents left, such as Indiana’s 6th District, Mississippi’s 3rd District, South Carolina’s 4th District along with at-large seats in both North Dakota along with South Dakota.
yet different GOP members of Congress are choosing not to run again in areas considered particularly vulnerable for the party. Those seats include Florida’s 27th District along with Pennsylvania’s newly redrawn 5th, 6th along with 7th Districts.