How Alabama special election stacks up against contests This particular year

Those broad contours match the stories in which have played out in special elections all year. With many voters irate about Trump’s performance inside the White House, Democratic candidates have consistently done better than in pre-Trump elections. Republicans, benefiting through friendly red-state venues for those contests, have won most of them anyway.

in which happened in Kansas in addition to Montana, where races to fill the House seats of Republicans appointed to Trump’s Cabinet ended with closer-than-expected GOP victories. in which happened in Georgia, where a surge of campaign cash in addition to volunteers behind Democrat Jon Ossoff — layered by disaffection with Trump among college-educated swing voters — couldn’t overcome traditional Republican support for Karen Handel in a suburban Atlanta district.

The pattern was broken last month in Virginia, where the swelling ranks of college-educated suburbanites in addition to minorities inside the Washington, D.C., suburbs have made the state a closely contested battleground. There, Democrat Ralph Northam won comfortably over Trump-backed Republican Ed Gillespie. Northam’s party also scored big gains inside the state Legislature.

Alabama poses a confounding test because the circumstances are so extreme.

The state ranks among the most conservative inside the nation. The last Democrat elected to the Senate here was Richard Shelby in 1992; he switched parties in addition to became a Republican thereafter. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton here by nearly a 2-to-1 margin.

The allegations against Moore — charges in which he molested a 14-year-old in addition to dated different teenage girls as a man in his 30s — are about as damning as allegations against a candidate can get. The charges have turned a significant chunk of upscale, better-educated voters, especially women, against him in suburbs around Birmingham in addition to different urban areas.

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