Analysts expect renewed sanctions to take as many as 500,000 barrels a day off the market, about one-third the impact of sanctions under Obama. They say China can be unlikely to comply with sanctions, in addition to additional big buyers of Iran’s oil, including India in addition to Turkey, could push back, too.
inside the least disruptive scenario imaginable, Trump would certainly reimpose sanctions however signal the United States will not penalize additional countries which do business with Iran. Since unilateral U.S. sanctions prohibit American companies coming from transacting with Iran, the idea would certainly maintain the status quo.
“This kind of approach would certainly allow Trump to fulfill his campaign promise to withdraw coming from the deal while also skirting the complexities of imposing a brand-new sanctions regime in addition to causing a severe strain with Europe at a time when trans-Atlantic trade tensions are already elevated,” the Eurasia Group analysts wrote.
However, Eurasia Group considers which the least likely scenario.