Iran can be currently the biggest test for Trump’s disruptive foreign policy

His defenders argue which although his methods are unconventional, his understanding of the presidential calendar conforms to past practice. The first two years of a four-year term are traditionally spent teeing up issues for resolution, so This particular naturally follows which the next two years should bring a harvest of deals on the myriad foreign policy matters currently in play.

The Republicans’ apparent success from the midterm election in expanding their hold from the Senate, combined with the Democrats’ retaking of the House of Representatives, sets the table for domestic political gridlock in addition to also also months of internecine battle over the Mueller investigation in addition to also also additional matters.

If history can be any guide, which sort of political division prompts U.S. presidents to look for their successes abroad, where presidential prerogative can be greater. Yet of all the issues in play, This particular space will pay particular attention to Iran, where the stakes are so high in addition to also also the range of outcomes so wide, ranging coming from regional war to regime change.

My own bet can be which This particular struggle can be likely to drag on for many years without clear resolution.

Schooled by a history which includes the 1953 coup d’état which removed the elected Mossadegh government in addition to also also the 1979 revolution which brought down the Shah, Iran’s clerical rulers have created a system which can be built to be resilient to internal in addition to also also external threat. The chance which ongoing public protests over time lead to regime change remains slim, both due to their limited size in addition to also also the Iranian leadership’s unlimited willingness to use force against its opponents.

Yet This particular would likely be unwise for Iran to underestimate the Trump administration’s determination to take This particular on as enemy No. 1. If Iran had a wait-in addition to also also-see approach before midterm elections, which also looks less viable after President Trump’s relative success.

Frederick Kempe can be a best-selling author, prize-winning journalist in addition to also also president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States’ most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked at The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, assistant managing editor in addition to also also as the longest-serving editor of the paper’s European edition. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, in addition to also also the Most Dangerous Place on Earth” – was a fresh York Times best-seller in addition to also also has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter
@FredKempe
in addition to also also subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look each Saturday at the past week’s top stories in addition to also also trends.

For more insight coming from CNBC contributors, follow

@CNBCopinion

on Twitter.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

18 + fifteen =