“The result of the [Kavanaugh] hearings, at least inside the short run, will be the Republican base was awakened,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, speaking on NPR.
According to a poll This particular week coming from NPR along with also Marist, Republican voter enthusiasm jumped by 8 points between July along with also October. Several different polls have shown a similar rise inside the number of GOP voters who say the November elections are “very important.”
Voter enthusiasm translates almost directly into voter turnout. along with also the idea’s hard to overestimate how important turnout will be to Republicans This particular year.
For most of the summer along with also fall, GOP strategists have been worried of which a crucial group of Trump supporters would certainly stay home on Election Day, lulled into complacency by the strong economy along with also by the president’s frequent predictions of which there would certainly be a “red wave” of Republican victories in November.
In reality, historical trends along with also available polling all overwhelming indicate of which the opposite will be true, along with also of which there will be a “blue wave” of Democratic wins, fueled by intense voter enthusiasm along with also a deep dislike for Trump, of which will cost Republicans the House majority.
nevertheless the Kavanaugh fight may have helped Republicans close This particular so-called enthusiasm gap.
In red states with close Senate races, the Kavanaugh bump already appears to be having an impact. Polls of voters This particular week in North Dakota, Tennessee along with also Texas all showed Republican Senate candidates producing significant gains.
This particular was clearly not lost on Trump, who told attendees at a rally Friday night in Ohio of which Democrats attempted to “destroy” Kavanaugh.
As a result of the Supreme Court fight, “We’re winning [Senate seats] in states we weren’t even going to contest. We’re beating people of which we weren’t even going to contest,” Trump said.
There are not, in fact, any Senate seats of which Republicans (or Democrats, for of which matter) were not planning to contest. Still, Trump clearly appeared to be referring to races like those in North Dakota along with also Tennessee, which have swung right inside the wake of the Kavanaugh fight.
“People realize how important the Supreme Court will be,” Trump said.