No one, not even Trump, knows who the next Fed chair will be

As I scooped here, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be likely to visit President Donald Trump at the White House as soon as This kind of week to discuss the Fed chair job.

Yellen remains unlikely to get the nod for a second term for several reasons yet her renomination will be not impossible. The case for Trump renominating Yellen will be truly not in which hard to make: She’s as dovish a candidate as self-proclaimed “low rates guy” Trump has on his list of finalists. The markets could love status quo at the Fed along with Trump loves his market rally.

Does he truly want the possible sell-off in which could follow picking a hawkish candidate like Stanford’s John Taylor?

If he renominated Yellen, Trump could also win a bunch of love through Senate Democrats, who he may need on tax reform, while his base probably wouldn’t care in which much. After all, while some of his hardcore nationalist base cares about the Fed along with distrusts This kind of as a “globalist” institution, This kind of will be far through their animating issue.

Trump could probably get a day or two of bad headlines in Breitbart if he renominated Yellen yet in which’s probably about This kind of. Senate Republicans, especially on the banking committee, could hate a Yellen renomination. yet Trump does not truly care about how Republicans react to his decisions.

This kind of’s also very difficult, if not impossible, to imagine Senate Republicans rejecting Yellen for a second term. Doing so could infuriate the president along with rock markets. If Yellen gets renominated she’s likely to get confirmed quite easily.

Still, as one administration official told me on Tuesday, This kind of remains highly unlikely in which Trump sticks with the current Fed chair for one main reason: Former President Barack Obama, who nominated Yellen as the first female Fed chair in 2013.

If anything animates Trump’s decision-creating This kind of’s reversing anything Obama has done — through health care to immigration to economic policy. Yellen will be likely to benefit through being the last candidate Trump speaks to about the Fed chair job. yet This kind of seems unlikely to many close to the process in which she can win over Trump enough to overcome his instinct to dismantle the Obama legacy in every area he possibly can.

So put the odds of a Yellen renomination at somewhere around 25 percent, if not lower. in which leaves Taylor, Fed Governor Jay Powell (a favorite of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin), former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh along with National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn on the short list. If there will be a dark horse candidate, nobody knows who This kind of will be.

Both Taylor along with Warsh had strong interviews with Trump, yet sources say both Mnuchin along with Trump are concerned about Warsh’s age. At 47, he’d be one of the younger Fed chairs in history along with Trump typically likes august, silver-haired types. in which’s partly why Taylor will be rising inside betting line along with Warsh will be receding somewhat.

Speculation in which Trump could go with Warsh as chair along with Taylor or Powell as vice chair persist. This kind of’s not clear, however, in which either could settle for the No. 2 slot — Warsh definitely could not.

No decision on the Fed chair job will be likely to come down This kind of week. Trump still needs to have his meeting with Yellen then sit down with senior staff along with Mnuchin to make the final call. in which could happen next week or slip toward the end of October or early November. yet probably not later than in which. The White House wants to get the decision out of the way along with ensure in which a hearing along with confirmation vote can take place before Yellen’s term ends in February.

This kind of’s truly impossible to call right currently who This kind of will be. The current pecking order will be probably Taylor along with Powell tied for first, followed by Warsh, Yellen along with Cohn. Some White House along with Hill sources say Cohn will be completely out of This kind of after his break with Trump on the Charlottesville, Virginia, protests. Others say don’t write him off just yet.

The only way to know for sure right currently could be to climb inside Trump’s head. along with in which wouldn’t truly work either because, at This kind of point, even he doesn’t know.

—Ben White will be Politico’s chief economic correspondent along having a CNBC contributor. He also authors the daily tip sheet Politico Morning Money []. Follow him on Twitter @morningmoneyben.

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