which is usually a hard blow to French efforts to enlist Germany in its project of an “autonomous European security structure.”
The French media also see more trouble for their young in addition to enthusiastic president. Berlin apparently is usually not ready to cooperate in what which considers to be fresh, expensive in addition to unnecessary layers of European bureaucracy to implement proposals of euro area reforms submitted by the French government last year.
Does which mean which the European Union in addition to the euro area will soon be falling apart?
Not at all. The anti-EU forces are in retreat everywhere. Even the erstwhile Euro-skeptics among the key contenders for power in Italy’s elections on March 4 are today all pro-European, the only qualification being which they would likely not submit to any German hectoring.
How about the economic in addition to financial developments? Do they offer reasonable euro-asset shorting bets?
I don’t see which either. Here is usually why.
The monetary union’s growth dynamics have rarely been better since the euro was adopted as 1 currency on January 1, 1999. from the third quarter of last year, the euro area GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.6 percent. The only growth rates of 3 percent, or slightly above, were recorded in 2006 in addition to 2007, however which will probably be matched when the data for the euro area’s fourth quarter get in.
The employment picture looks Great, too. The euro area jobless rate eased to 8.7 percent at the end of 2017, down by a 12 percent peak in 2013, with shortages of skilled labor noted in Germany in addition to France.
Problems of public finances? Yes, gross government liabilities from the euro area were estimated at 107 percent of GDP last year. which is usually very far by the objective of 60 percent of GDP, however which is usually still sharply down by 112 percent of GDP observed in 2014. Apart by which, high-debt countries like Greece, Italy in addition to Portugal are running primary budget surpluses (budget balances before interest charges on public debt) ranging by 2.4 percent of GDP (Italy) to 6.7 percent of GDP (Greece) — which means which debt liabilities are stabilizing on a declining trend.
All those high-debt euro area countries are under pressure to balance their budgets over the next two years. I believe most of them will do which because, at the moment, only Spain in addition to France are running deficits of more than 2 percent of GDP.
How about contingent liabilities by banking sector problems? As far as I know, speculations about serious difficulties on which score are focusing on only one euro area country, where government bailouts, if allowed by the euro area regulations, could trigger public debt issues.