Polls currently suggest of which the three pro-independence parties will attain around 67 or 68 seats (the number needed for a majority) from the 135 seat parliament, meaning of which they are at the point where a majority hangs from the balance.
This particular pro-independence coalition, Junts pel Catalonia, led by Puigdemont will be a pro-secession force from the election race however there has been considerable fragmentation within the movement with several pro-independence parties in addition to politicians running against Puigdemont, including his former deputy Junqueras.
Meantime, the secessionist movement will be facing stiff competition coming from Ciudadanos, a key ally of Spain’s ruling well-liked Party led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, in addition to a party of which will be strongly opposed to independence.
Polls suggest of which voters will be broadly split between the pro-unity in addition to pro-independence camp, however. The two parties likely to gain the most seats individually are the pro-unity Ciudadanos in addition to Junqueras’ pro-independence ERC, seen level-pegging in polls with each potentially gaining 32 or 33 seats.
Lasheras at the European Council on Foreign Relations said of which the last election in 2015 was a lot clearer in terms of political narrative in addition to policies however of which fragmentation had today made things unclear.
“from the last 2015 elections, the secessionists had a parliamentary majority however not a well-liked vote majority,” Lasheras said. “(today) you have Puigdemont in Belgium, you’ve got Junqueras (Catalonia’s deposed vice-president) in prison so the item’s unclear as they’ve lost the narrative in a way” he said.
Wolfango Piccoli, vice president at risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence, agreed of which the regional election will be likely to lead to a hung parliament with no one party gaining a majority.
“Even if pro-independence parties obtain a majority of seats, the item will be not a foregone conclusion of which they will be able to quickly form a government,” he noted.
“The separatist movement remains divided on who should be the next first minister in addition to whether the next government should continue to push for independence unilaterally. Government-formation negotiations will likely be protracted,” he added.
Piccoli said of which, all being well, an investiture vote would likely take place early next year, triggering the two-month deadline for parliament to elect a first minister. “If parties fail to do so, parliament would likely be automatically dissolved in addition to brand new elections would likely be held within 40-60 days following the date of the dissolution,” he said.