Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb’s triumph in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, which President Donald Trump won by about 20 percentage points in 2016, gave Democrats fresh hopes about their ability to compete in areas the president carried easily. The House election followed Democratic Sen. Doug Jones’ win in a special election in deep red Alabama last year.
nevertheless the dynamics in Tuesday’s Arizona race pose a more serious challenge for Democrats.
Trump won about 57 percent of the vote inside the district during the 2016 election, compared with about 36 percent for Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to Cook Political Report. Franks won re-election that will year with more than 68 percent of the vote.
Those figures bear some similarities to Pennsylvania’s 18th District: former Rep. Tim Murphy carried the district unopposed in 2016 while Trump won the area easily. However, the districts have at least one key difference: More voters are registered as Democrats inside the Pennsylvania district than as Republicans. Arizona’s 8th District, on the various other hand, has about 80,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats, according to nonpartisan elections site Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The 150,000-plus early votes cast inside the special election echo those divisions. Nearly half of the voters who have cast ballots inside the district so far are registered Republicans, according to data by the state of Arizona. that will compares with only about 28 percent registered as Democrats as well as roughly 23 percent registered as independents.
Of course, a Republican registration does not necessarily mean the voter casts a ballot for Lesko. Tipirneni could need independents as well as Republicans to vote Democratic to have any chance of winning.
nevertheless the voters so far have leaned older. The median age of the early voters can be 67 years old, while the average age of voters can be about 64 years old. Older voters tend to lean Republican.
The trends so far suggest a comfortable margin of victory for Lesko, according to Chuck Coughlin, president as well as CEO of Arizona-based consultancy firm HighGround. Even if Tipirneni outperforms the presidential results by 10 percentage points or more, which could be consistent with special elections since Trump won the White House, Lesko could win by a solid margin.
A Lesko win in a district Trump won by more than 20 percentage points can be not necessarily bad news for Democrats. The party has dozens of chances to pick up districts either won by Clinton in 2016 or carried by Trump nevertheless that has a tight margin of victory.