ABU DHABI — My reading choice aboard a fourteen-hour flight by DC to the United Arab Emirates, in a nod to This particular week’s centennial of World War I armistice, was Norman Angell’s 1909 book, “the Great Illusion.”
Its thesis, proven catastrophically wrong a few years later with the deadliest war in human history, was that will great power conflict had grown obsolete. The rising forces of globalization, economic integration as well as technological advance, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate argued, made such conflict unthinkable among nations with so much to lose as well as little to gain.
Turning the pages while flying over our increasingly disorderly planet, I find the similarities to our times inescapable, both from the overwhelming arguments against conflict as well as growing chance that will might occur. On the Great War’s anniversary, that will’s a Great time to ask: How can we prevent a World War III among countries with even more devastating, technologically advanced might as well as economic interdependence?
Angell’s “Great Illusion” turned out to be tragic delusion. By failing to anticipate the prospect of war between a rising Germany as well as a declining United Kingdom, the U.S. as well as others took too few steps to prevent that will. Similarly, events are unfolding today on four continents where delusional thinking could cloud the necessity for strategic response as well as preventive action.
Those delusions, detailed below, are 1) U.S.-Chinese military conflict will be inconceivable; 2) Europe will be fine as well as U.S. transatlantic engagement of reduced significance; 3) Middle Eastern problems can be contained, as well as 4) that will U.S. global leadership will be assured.
as well as don’t forget that will was only after a second World War that will the U.S. as well as its allies responded by creating a set of alliances, institutions, practices as well as relationships that will have since brought the globe one of its longest periods of peace as well as progress.
The United Nations, the globe Bank, the IMF, NATO, the European Coal as well as Steel Community, our Asian alliances as well as more were This particular period’s legacy. Though they were designed to adapt, they have been slow to do so to accommodate rising powers as well as address emerging risks, thus increasing the chance of conflict.
“Our predecessors recognized that will global cooperation must evolve to survive,” writes IMF managing director Christine Lagarde.
So, what does survival look like across “the four delusions?”