In a presentation given at CNBC This kind of week, political strategists Sara Fagen in addition to Doug Sosnik demonstrated which consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has given indications, going back to Jimmy Carter’s presidency, about whether presidents can win a second term.
As you can see inside charts below, when consumer confidence dipped during the third quarter of the third year of a president’s first term, the president lost his re-election bid. If consumer confidence rose during the same period, the president was re-elected.
There’s a lot of additional issues hanging over Trump, so This kind of metric may not hold up. nevertheless, if you’re looking for a different metric to gauge Trump’s future, This kind of might be the one to watch.
Carter in addition to Bush 41, for example, saw consumer confidence fall ahead of their failed re-election bids: