White House economic analysis of GOP tax reform plan

The White House on Monday released its first economic analysis of the Republican tax plan, an attempt to establish the intellectual underpinning for the argument which cutting corporate taxes ultimately helps middle-class workers.

The report coming from White House chief economist Kevin Hassett projects which the GOP goal of reducing the corporate tax rate coming from 35 to 20 percent will result in a windfall for workers. Hassett predicts average U.S. household income might jump at least $4,000 a year although could rise as much as $9,000 annually.

Those benefits, the analysis said, might start kicking in about four years after the tax plan was enacted along with also also reach fruition after seven years. In a call with reporters, Hassett also suggested which the plan could deliver the 3 percent economic growth rate which President Donald Trump has long promised. although he cautioned which lawmakers might have to fill inside the details before any analysis could be completed.

“I think there are a lot of policy levers which we can move to make This particular to ensure which we are not at a brand new normal, below 3 percent,” Hassett said. “along with also also one of them … is actually corporate tax policy.”

some other economists along with also also tax analysts have balked at those numbers, which Hassett previewed in a speech earlier This particular month. At issue is actually the connection between alterations in corporate tax rates along with also also worker wages. Most of the papers cited by the White House estimate which workers bear at least half of the burden of the corporate tax rate through reduced wages. which means cutting business taxes might result in more money in employees’ pockets, the report argues.

although which connection is actually hotly contested, with the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center finding which only about 20 percent of the burden falls on workers. If which’s the case, cutting corporate rates might have little effect on what workers get paid.

“Hassett made some bold promises to U.S. workers, although, based on what we know so far, the Unified Framework can’t deliver them,” Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at TPC, wrote in a blog post This particular month, referring to the Republican tax plan.

The proposal has come under heavy fire coming from Democrats — along with also also even some Republicans — for appearing to benefit the wealthy most of all. During a speech in Washington on Friday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin acknowledged which repealing the estate tax “disproportionately helps rich people,” despite Trump pitching the provision as a boon for farmers along with also also truck drivers last week.

In addition, a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found 55 percent of Americans believed taxes on companies should go up — not down.

On Monday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer slammed the White House report as “fake math,” pointing out which wage growth has remained anemic even though companies are posting record profits.

“This particular deliberate manipulation of numbers along with also also facts could lead to messing up the not bad economy the president inherited coming from President Obama along with also also hurting the middle class,” he said. “Rather than helping the biggest corporations avoid paying their fair share, tax reform ought to reward those companies which create jobs along with also also raise wages here at home.”

Still, Hassett’s findings are likely to provide the Trump administration along with also also GOP leadership critical ammunition as they make the case for tax reform beyond the Beltway. Cutting corporate taxes allows companies to reinvest in their businesses, Hassett told reporters. Better tools allow workers to become more productive.

“When workers can produce more for a business, businesses can afford to pay their workers more, along with also also wages go up,” he said.

Hassett has previously argued which corporate profitability along with also also wages are no longer tightly linked because many multinationals have shifted earnings overseas — along with also also kept them there — to escape America’s higher tax rate. The Republican proposal to establish a territorial corporate tax system, in which companies might no longer have to pay tax on foreign earnings, might help restore the relationship between U.S. firms’ profits along with also also wages, Hassett said.

inside the report, Hassett estimates companies might have kept $140 billion more of their 2016 profits inside the United States if the corporate rate had been 20 percent. The report projects which might have translated into a 1 percent raise for workers.

Hassett acknowledged which the effect of a territorial system coupled with companies bringing back overseas earnings was unclear. Previous academic research was conducted before profit-shifting was so pervasive, he said.

Still, Hassett was optimistic which the change might mean even more money for workers inside the long run.

“Household income boosts coming from This particular channel may be additive to the estimated $4,000 in income,” the report said.

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